tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Chicago via Denver: arrives on time 12%

  1. 18:40 STL → 20:00 DEN
    WN 3913 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 47% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 DEN → 00:15 MDW +1 day
    WN 1615 · Southwest · 2h 22m · 36% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip5h 32mSTL 18:40 to MDW 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.