tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 18%

  1. 18:40 STL → 20:00 DEN
    WN 3913 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 47% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 DEN → 22:00 PHX
    WN 1684 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 40% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip5h 15mSTL 18:40 to PHX 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.