tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Los Angeles via Las Vegas: arrives on time 20%

  1. 19:40 STL → 21:05 LAS
    WN 3935 · Southwest · 3h 25m · 14% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 LAS → 23:45 LAX
    WN 1056 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 05mSTL 19:40 to LAX 23:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.