tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 6%

  1. 19:40 STL → 21:05 LAS
    WN 3935 · Southwest · 3h 25m · 14% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 LAS → 23:28 SAN
    WN 2871 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection22%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 78% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (22%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip5h 47mSTL 19:40 to SAN 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.