tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 78%

  1. 05:45 STL → 06:55 PHX
    WN 3967 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 98% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:45 PHX → 09:45 SMF
    WN 2885 · Southwest · 1h 58m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip5h 58mSTL 05:45 to SMF 09:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.