tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Phoenix via Las Vegas: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:55 STS → 17:40 LAS
    WN 3992 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 LAS → 19:50 PHX
    WN 4461 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 41% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip3h 55mSTS 15:55 to PHX 19:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.