tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Dallas via Austin: arrives on time 26%

  1. 18:55 TPA → 20:25 AUS
    WN 4001 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 28% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 AUS → 23:02 DAL
    WN 280 · Southwest · 1h 08m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 08mTPA 18:55 to DAL 23:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.