tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Phoenix via Austin: arrives on time 18%

  1. 18:55 TPA → 20:25 AUS
    WN 4001 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 28% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 AUS → 22:00 PHX
    WN 378 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 05mTPA 18:55 to PHX 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.