tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Dallas via Nashville: arrives on time 41%

  1. 09:30 TPA → 10:20 BNA
    WN 4002 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:10 BNA → 13:05 DAL
    WN 487 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 35mTPA 09:30 to DAL 13:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.