tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Austin via Nashville: arrives on time 27%

  1. 20:45 TPA → 21:40 BNA
    WN 4006 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 51% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 BNA → 00:50 AUS +1 day
    WN 454 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip5h 00mTPA 20:45 to AUS 00:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.