tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → New Orleans via Nashville: arrives on time 31%

  1. 20:45 TPA → 21:40 BNA
    WN 4006 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 51% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 BNA → 00:25 MSY +1 day
    WN 597 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 40mTPA 20:45 to MSY 00:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.