tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → New Orleans via Chicago: arrives on time 79%

  1. 05:20 TPA → 07:00 MDW
    WN 4031 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:50 MDW → 11:05 MSY
    WN 2834 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 65 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 50m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 45mTPA 05:20 to MSY 11:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.