tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Birmingham via Chicago: arrives on time 64%

  1. 10:45 TPA → 12:25 MDW
    WN 4033 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 07m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:32 MDW → 16:12 BHM
    WN 496 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 67% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 82 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 07m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 27mTPA 10:45 to BHM 16:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.