tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Houston via New Orleans: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:10 TPA → 17:45 MSY
    WN 4038 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in New Orleans (MSY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 MSY → 19:55 HOU
    WN 1810 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 42% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 3h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip3h 45mTPA 17:10 to HOU 19:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.