tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Houston via New York: arrives on time 26%

  1. 09:45 MDW → 12:50 LGA
    WN 4044 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 75% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:40 LGA → 16:30 HOU
    WN 4861 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 54% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 45mMDW 09:45 to HOU 16:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.