tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 10:15 TPA → 11:40 STL
    WN 4049 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:40 STL → 13:45 MDW
    WN 3344 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 60% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 30mTPA 10:15 to MDW 13:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.