tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Phoenix via Dallas: arrives on time 17%

  1. 18:40 TUL → 19:45 DAL
    WN 4054 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 DAL → 21:05 PHX
    WN 3674 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip4h 20mTUL 18:40 to PHX 21:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.