tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 11%

  1. 20:35 TUL → 21:25 LAS
    WN 4056 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 LAS → 23:28 SAN
    WN 2871 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip4h 52mTUL 20:35 to SAN 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.