tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Santa Ana via Sacramento: arrives on time 18%

  1. 16:05 AUS → 17:40 SMF
    WN 406 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 SMF → 20:00 SNA
    WN 3834 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection24%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 76% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (24%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 55mAUS 16:05 to SNA 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.