tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Santa Ana via Sacramento: arrives on time 84%

  1. 16:05 AUS → 17:40 SMF
    WN 406 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 05m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 SMF → 22:15 SNA
    WN 3837 · Southwest · 1h 32m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 140 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 05m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip8h 12mAUS 16:05 to SNA 22:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.