tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Orlando via Chicago: arrives on time 20%

  1. 11:00 PHX → 16:20 MDW
    WN 4066 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:10 MDW → 20:55 MCO
    WN 164 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 75% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 55mPHX 11:00 to MCO 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.