tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 11:00 PHX → 16:20 MDW
    WN 4066 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MDW → 21:00 DTW
    WN 4200 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 54% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 105 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 30m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip7h 02mPHX 11:00 to DTW 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.