tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Cleveland via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 11:00 PHX → 16:20 MDW
    WN 4066 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 MDW → 19:35 CLE
    WN 4506 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 72% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 35mPHX 11:00 to CLE 19:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.