tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 12%

  1. 11:00 PHX → 16:20 MDW
    WN 4066 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 MDW → 20:50 TPA
    WN 4520 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 50mPHX 11:00 to TPA 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.