tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Pittsburgh → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 20:10 PIT → 20:40 MDW
    WN 4073 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 71% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip7h 02mPIT 20:10 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.