tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Santa Ana via Sacramento: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:50 DEN → 17:25 SMF
    WN 4096 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 48% on time, 5.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 SMF → 20:00 SNA
    WN 3834 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (5.9% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 10mDEN 15:50 to SNA 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.