tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Miami via Nashville: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:00 MEM → 18:00 BNA
    WN 410 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 51% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 BNA → 22:35 MIA
    WN 4575 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 41% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip4h 35mMEM 17:00 to MIA 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.