tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Baltimore via Denver: arrives on time 27%

  1. 13:40 SMF → 17:00 DEN
    WN 4105 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 DEN → 23:40 BWI
    WN 1499 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 39% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip7h 00mSMF 13:40 to BWI 23:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.