tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 16:45 BOS → 18:35 MDW
    WN 4106 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 54% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip10h 27mBOS 16:45 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.