tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Grand Rapids via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 19:08 MSP → 20:38 MDW
    WN 4115 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 68% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 MDW → 23:25 GRR
    WN 4113 · Southwest · 58m · 50% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip3h 18mMSP 19:08 to GRR 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.