tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → St Louis via Las Vegas: arrives on time 32%

  1. 17:50 SMF → 19:20 LAS
    WN 4116 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 LAS → 01:55 STL +1 day
    WN 2371 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 40mSMF 17:50 to STL 01:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.