tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Washington via Dallas: arrives on time 16%

  1. 14:30 MEM → 15:50 DAL
    WN 4127 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 54% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 DAL → 20:55 DCA
    WN 3014 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 24% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (24%).
Total trip5h 25mMEM 14:30 to DCA 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.