tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Chicago via Dallas: arrives on time 15%

  1. 14:30 MEM → 15:50 DAL
    WN 4127 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 54% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:50 DAL → 19:05 MDW
    WN 36 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 30% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (30%).
Total trip4h 35mMEM 14:30 to MDW 19:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.