tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 18%

  1. 15:20 DAL → 15:45 PHX
    WN 4129 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:35 PHX → 18:20 RNO
    WN 3331 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Dallas). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 00mDAL 15:20 to RNO 18:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.