tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Reno via Las Vegas: arrives on time 21%

  1. 15:50 AUS → 16:40 LAS
    WN 4143 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 LAS → 19:10 RNO
    WN 2012 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 20mAUS 15:50 to RNO 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.