tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 18%

  1. 18:00 BWI → 19:35 DTW
    WN 4159 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 58% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 DTW → 20:35 MDW
    WN 1782 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 39% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip3h 35mBWI 18:00 to MDW 20:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.