tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Las Vegas via St Louis: arrives on time 26%

  1. 20:15 DTW → 20:50 STL
    WN 4159 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 43% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 STL → 23:18 LAS
    WN 3936 · Southwest · 3h 28m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 03mDTW 20:15 to LAS 23:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.