tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 82%

  1. 08:00 PHL → 09:05 MDW
    WN 4202 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:45 MDW → 14:55 SDF
    WN 4473 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 175 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 55mPHL 08:00 to SDF 14:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.