tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Tampa via Baltimore: arrives on time 63%

  1. 17:05 SDF → 18:45 BWI
    WN 4209 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 77% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 35m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 BWI → 23:50 TPA
    WN 4578 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 35m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 50mSDF 17:05 to TPA 23:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.