tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Baltimore: arrives on time 46%

  1. 17:05 SDF → 18:45 BWI
    WN 4209 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 77% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 BWI → 23:30 LAS
    WN 977 · Southwest · 5h 10m · 50% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip9h 30mSDF 17:05 to LAS 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.