tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Baltimore via Phoenix: arrives on time 20%

  1. 13:08 SFO → 15:15 PHX
    WN 4237 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 18% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:25 PHX → 23:45 BWI
    WN 4347 · Southwest · 4h 22m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 39mSFO 13:08 to BWI 23:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.