tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Sacramento via Las Vegas: arrives on time 13%

  1. 17:25 MCI → 18:25 LAS
    WN 4240 · Southwest · 3h 00m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:20 LAS → 20:58 SMF
    WN 978 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (35%).
Total trip5h 33mMCI 17:25 to SMF 20:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.