tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via Las Vegas: arrives on time 15%

  1. 09:45 SFO → 11:20 LAS
    WN 4249 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 22% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:35 LAS → 18:10 MDW
    WN 2273 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 25mSFO 09:45 to MDW 18:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.