tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Chicago via Houston: arrives on time 11%

  1. 18:45 AUS → 19:45 HOU
    WN 4255 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 32% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 HOU → 23:10 MDW
    WN 2044 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 38% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip4h 25mAUS 18:45 to MDW 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.