tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Orlando via Las Vegas: arrives on time 11%

  1. 12:20 SMF → 13:50 LAS
    WN 4278 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:40 LAS → 22:22 MCO
    WN 1225 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip7h 02mSMF 12:20 to MCO 22:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.