tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via Denver: arrives on time 21%

  1. 10:00 SFO → 13:30 DEN
    WN 4284 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 12% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 DEN → 18:20 MDW
    WN 1603 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 61% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 20mSFO 10:00 to MDW 18:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.