tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Orlando via Phoenix: arrives on time 65%

  1. 19:50 SMF → 21:45 PHX
    WN 4285 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:05 PHX → 06:20 MCO +1 day
    WN 4508 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 81% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 30mSMF 19:50 to MCO 06:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.