tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Los Angeles via Phoenix: arrives on time 27%

  1. 19:50 SMF → 21:45 PHX
    WN 4285 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 PHX → 00:08 LAX +1 day
    WN 868 · Southwest · 1h 22m · 50% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 17mSMF 19:50 to LAX 00:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.