tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → San Diego via Phoenix: arrives on time 49%

  1. 06:35 TUL → 07:05 PHX
    WN 4287 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:55 PHX → 09:10 SAN
    WN 2771 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 35mTUL 06:35 to SAN 09:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.