tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Tampa via Nashville: arrives on time 69%

  1. 05:30 BHM → 06:30 BNA
    WN 430 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 95% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 01m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 08:31 BNA → 11:25 TPA
    AA 3825 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 54m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 01m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 55mBHM 05:30 to TPA 11:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.